Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
SA summer crop harvest set to recover robustly in 2024-25
South Africa's agriculture is recovering after a challenging mid-summer drought that led to significant crop losses in the 2023-24 season. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) 's data released at the end of March 2025 paints an encouraging picture of this new season's summer crop production prospects. For example, the 2024-25…
There is rising optimism in South Africa’s agriculture
We have a challenging year like this one where there remains discomfort about the Expropriation Act in some sections of South Africa and rising geopolitical tensions; we were pleasantly surprised to see rising optimism in South Africa’s agriculture. The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) – a sentiment indicator in South…
The conundrum of rising agricultural output and worsening food security in South Africa
South Africa has the contradiction of being the leading agricultural exporter in Africa, while swelling number of households that is food insecure. Without proper policy engagement of this challenge, the sector face the risk of more waves of misconceptions about its export-driven growth drive while many South Africans are impoverished…
South Africa’s agricultural exports reached a record level in 2024
South Africa's agriculture exports reached a new record of US$13,7 billion in 2024, up 3% from the previous year. This reflects both an increase in the volume of agricultural exports and higher prices of some products. The top exported products by value include citrus, grapes, maize, apples and pears, wine,…
Encouraging crop production prospects for SA in the 2024-25 season
We have been saying for some time that this will likely be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture following a harsh mid-summer drought in the 2023-24 season that weighed on grains and oilseeds harvest. The first production estimates for 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds point to the possibility of…
There are positive prospects for farm jobs in SA
South Africa's agriculture is on its recovery path, supported by favourable rainfall and progress in controlling the spread of animal diseases, amongst other contributing factors. The previous 2023-24 production season was challenging, characterised by the mid-summer drought and animal diseases that added immense pressure to the sector. The jobs data…
What to make of the recent major decline in South Africa's maize prices?
Since I have been writing about the higher maize prices and possible upside risks to consumer food price inflation, I thought it is important to highlight that we have been observing a price retreat since last week. When the market closed today, February 14, 2025, South Africa's white maize spot…
South Africa’s agriculture is thriving
There has been an emerging narrative that South Africa's agriculture has not performed well recently. Inept municipalities, poor road infrastructure, stock theft, and port inefficiencies all contribute to this narrative of failure and despair. Stories of the failings of land reform farms also add to this sentiment of regression in…
South African farmers likely planted a bigger area in the 2024-25 season
While the start of South Africa's 2024-25 crop season was tricky, there remains optimism that farmers likely planted more area than the previous season. The preliminary plantings data released by the Crop Estimates Committee this afternoon shows that South African farmers likely planted 4,45 million hectares of summer grains and…
Can South Africa deepen agricultural exports to China?
A friend recently sent me a Bloomberg article about China's efforts to diversify agricultural imports. The idea is to lessen the reliance on the US in anticipation of trade friction under the Trump administration. Central and South Americans seem to be on the way to becoming the major winners. They…
Helping a neighbor – SA continues to supply maize to Zimbabwe
Whenever I see challenges within South Africa's agriculture, Zimbabwe is the other country I think of as their challenges are often worse. Notably, South Africa typically has to shoulder Zimbabwe when there are challenges, specifically in staple grain production. Consider the 2023-24 production year, when Zimbabwe had a challenging season…
The troubling decline of the South African sorghum industry
Whenever one posts on social media about the challenges in the maize industry, I often see responses from people arguing that South Africans should consume more sorghum. They correctly highlight the nutritious value of the crop and its resilience in challenging climatic conditions. But with all these benefits, the sorghum…
South Africa's agriculture in 2024 and outlook for 2025
We can view 2024 in South Africa's agriculture as a "mixed" year. Indeed, the GDP figures will show a sharp contraction in South Africa's agricultural fortunes in 2024. But a deep dive will illuminate a more nuanced picture of mixed performance. For example, the field crops and livestock subsectors had…
SA sees robust agricultural exports
I am starting to believe that South Africa’s 2024 agricultural exports may reach a new record high and surpass the 2023 record level of US$13, 2 billion. The better prices and output in various fruits, red meat, wool, and wine will be the major driver of the improvement in exports…
There is rising optimism in South Africa’s farming sector
We continue to observe the rising optimism in South Africa’s farming and agribusiness sectors. For example, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI), a sentiment indicator in the sector, increased by 10 points from Q3 to 58 in Q4. This is the second consecutive improvement, placing the ACI at its highest…
South Africa eases a path for possible maize imports from the US
South Africa’s decision to ease possible maize imports from the U.S. is not necessarily bad. It is a “safety option” in recognition that our white maize supplies are tight. We also face strong demand from broader Southern Africa, whose maize production is down massively because of the drought earlier this…
The easing agricultural trade friction in SACU is crucial
The Southern African region has experienced agricultural trade friction in the past few years. Namibia and Botswana placed a ban on the imports of South African vegetables and citrus. Simply put, the rationale of both Namibia and Botswana was that the import ban ensures that their domestic producers are not…
SA's agricultural employment improves
While the 2023-24 mid-summer drought has been the central theme of the downbeat performance of South Africa's agriculture this year, we see a welcome positive change in the jobs data. Statistics South Africa data show that primary agriculture employment improved by 4% from the previous quarter to 935k jobs in…
South African farmers intend to plant slightly bigger area for grains this new season
After a challenging 2023-24 summer crop season, which saw South Africa's grains and oilseeds production falling by 24% year-on-year to 15,39 million tonnes, the recovery period may be in sight. The data released by the Crop Estimates Committee on October 29 shows that South African farmers intend to plant 4,47…
Government and industry's efforts to control animal disease spread must be lauded
The past three years have been challenging for South Africa's livestock and poultry industry because of the spread of animal diseases. Throughout this period, we have had various cases of foot-and-mouth disease in cattle, African swine fever in pigs, and avian influenza in poultry. While animal disease outbreaks are not…