US labour market trends weaken, SA’s GDP picks up marginally

Loading player...
The US August labour market report was mixed. It showed an improvement in the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.3% in July, but the number of jobs created was below the monthly average. Whether the US Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps or 50 bps later this month to stimulate the economy is under debate. STANLIB believes a 25 bps cut is most likely, followed by a series of others.
In Q2 2024, SA’s GDP grew by 0.4% q/q, better than the zero rate of growth in Q1, but still very weak. Growth was driven by higher electricity production, financial services and retail spending post-election. While there is no sign of broad-based growth, looming interest rate cuts, the cash released from the two-pot retirement system and public-private partnerships may stimulate the economy next year.
Click here to listen to the podcast.
9 Sep 2024 English South Africa Investing · Business News

Other recent episodes

US economy adds 300 000 jobs in two months

In this podcast, STANLIB’s Chief Economist, Kevin Lings, focuses on recent US labour market data, which is key to the performance of the economy. Labour market conditions appear to have improved in the last two months, with the economy adding an impressive number of jobs, despite the Middle East conflict…
11 May 4 min

US economic growth relies on AI investment

In this podcast, STANLIB’s Chief Economist, Kevin Lings, discusses the below-forecast 2% q/q growth in US GDP in the first quarter, which indicates the economy is being largely sustained by AI investment. He also discusses recent global central banks’ decisions to hold interest rates, and how this is likely to…
4 May 10 min

US not yet suffering inflationary effects of higher oil price

In this podcast, STANLIB’s Chief Economist, Kevin Lings, discusses the factors that influenced the surprisingly low increase in US PPI data for March, which is showing no second-round effects from tariffs and the higher oil price. However, he cautions it is still early to predict the direction of US interest…
20 Apr 14 min

Middle East war will keep US inflation above 3% for some time

In this podcast, STANLIB’s Chief Economist, Kevin Lings, analyses the increase in US inflation in March to 3.3% from 2.4%, largely due to oil price pressure – gasoline prices rose 21% in the month. Inflation is likely to stay above 3% for some time, above the US Federal Reserve 2%…
13 Apr 11 min

SARB considers short- and long-lasting Middle East War scenarios

In this podcast, STANLIB’s Chief Economist, Kevin Lings, unpacks the SA Reserve Bank’s three scenarios for inflation and interest rates, depending on the duration of the Middle East war. He also discusses SA’s April hikes in petrol and diesel prices – the biggest increases that SA has ever seen in…
30 Mar 15 min