Credit Insights: South Africa: Moody’s sovereign rating

The rand may be much weaker now than a month ago, but it may not be cheap enough. At 14,50, we were better buyers of USD and although the rand has moved a lot in the past month, its weakness can extend much further. It’s too soon to get bullish…

The 2022 Budget Speech will be delivered in an environment with more certainty than what we experienced in 2021. While revenue collection may surprise to the upside, expenditure pressures in the form of additional social support, and state-owned enterprises bailouts do threaten to slow down the fiscal recovery. Our Markets…

The latest US inflation print may have increased doubts that South Africa can escape most of the inflationary pressures observed in the US. For one, it seems as if the FRA market believes South Africa will not be able to escape these pressures. The FRA market is currently pricing in…

We project a further upward revision to revenue estimates over the entire MTEF at the upcoming Budget, with the main driver being corporate income tax (CIT) receipts. Our estimates suggest a cumulative R521bn increase in revenue collection from 2021 to 2025 relative to the MTBPS forecast. This is mainly due…

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